2026 World Cup: Fans in the US believe in a 'miracle', but two-thirds of Americans snub the tournament.

In the United States, many have no doubts: the US national soccer team will lead the way to the 2026 World Cup and might even win it. This feeling is widespread among a significant portion of American fans—one in five—who see the sport returning with great fanfare to the country after more than thirty years. Watch parties are nearly all sold out for USMNT (the men's national team) matches from Washington to Los Angeles, while fans are raging on social media, writing confidently in sports pages like The Athletic: "Why not us?"  

The team itself, led by AC Milan's Christian Pulisic, sincerely believes that a historic run is possible. Coach Mauricio Pochettino urged the team to believe in a new "Miracle on Ice" (US hockey's historic 1980 Olympic triumph), declaring: "We have to believe we can win, not just one game, but the entire World Cup. We want the players to start from day one cultivating big dreams... No one considers the United States a favorite."  

A Fox Sports advertising campaign, called "Miracle," has already imagined the impossible: the United States winning the tournament final against Brazil, thanks to a last-second goal from Christian Pulisic, directly from a corner. Of course, it's best not to tell this to bookmakers and international pundits, who consider the USMNT to be underdogs with very high odds (60 to 1). Statistical models estimate their probability of victory to be less than 1,5%. According to Nelson Vignolles, former deputy editor of Fox Sports Spanish, the Americans had a less than encouraging pre-World Cup campaign, narrowly beating Senegal and losing to Germany. "Many were celebrating losing only 1-2 to the Germans," Vignolles told Adnkronos. "In South America, everyone is convinced that Paraguay will easily win the US group."  

A survey published by ESPN reveals that most realistic fans are betting on the team reaching the round of 16 (20%) or the quarterfinals (18%), results consistent with its history. However, one statistic jars with the atmosphere in the country surrounding this World Cup: according to the latest official survey by the Pew Research Center, a full 66% of Americans say they won't watch the competition at all. However, optimism remains high and stems from a combination of factors such as home-field advantage, the guidance of a high-profile coach, an increasingly talented roster, and a sports culture that has always been confident in its abilities. 

The hiring of internationally renowned coach Mauricio Pochettino, for example, has radically transformed the team's internal mentality. Unlike previous managers, who focused on gradual progress, Pochettino has publicly called for a winning, title-focused mentality. "Pochettino often cites Morocco's historic achievement, reaching the semifinals in 2022, as proof that underdogs can overturn the odds if they refuse to limit their ambitions," says Fernando Fiore, an Argentine television host and author who has lived in the United States for years, where he recently worked as a commentator for the Major Soccer League.  

But there's another factor, Fiore explains to Adnkronos: home advantage. As the primary host of the 2026 World Cup, the United States will play the group stage matches in front of huge, enthusiastic crowds in cities like Los Angeles and Seattle. "Historically, playing at home offers a significant statistical advantage in soccer. Furthermore, since the USA will host 78 of the tournament's 104 matches—including all matches from the quarterfinals onward—they will have a geographic and fan advantage even in the later stages of the competition, should they qualify," Fiore says. 

Fiore mentions other factors, such as a squad that has grown up in Europe's top leagues. Player-wise, it's objectively the most competitive and talented team the United States has ever fielded. The core of the squad no longer plays exclusively in domestic leagues; 17 of the 26 players called up play for top-tier European clubs. Stars like Christian Pulisic (Milan) and Weston McKennie (Juventus) regularly compete in elite competitions, meaning the team no longer suffers from inferiority complexes when facing the world's major soccer powers. Another factor is the draw, as one of the hosts, which placed the US in Group D alongside Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey, completely avoiding the traditional "groups of death."  

Fans see a clear path not only to advance, but to win the group, thus securing a potentially favorable draw in the new round of 32. However, Nelson Vignolles reiterates that, in practice, the group will be tougher than it seems on paper: "Paraguay isn't a top South American team, but they're always a tough opponent. Vincenzo Montella's Turkey was a surprise during the European qualifiers, while Australia is still Australia. They're big, bulky, and foul-prone. The United States could win all three, or lose them all."  

Although a Pew Research survey reveals that only about 7% of Americans confidently predict a US victory, the highly active and passionate soccer community embraces that quintessentially American trait described by player Weston McKennie: the ability to "stand up and respond in the big moments." An in-depth YouGov survey shows a different dynamic. If we isolate only those citizens who define themselves as "soccer fans," the percentage of those who believe in the miracle of a US victory rises to 22%, or one in five American fans. Players like Tyler Adams have openly stated their desire to go further than any other US team in history, aiming to "beat a big team" on the world stage. American sports culture is rooted in exceptionalism and a refusal to accept the role of underdog. Nonetheless, awakening from this soccer "dream" could be very difficult for American fans. At the same time, as Fernando Fiore states: "Dreaming, in the end, costs nothing." (by Iacopo Luzi) 

(Adnkronos)