Europe gripped by unusually hot weather: record temperatures, warnings in Italy, and increasingly early waves.

Europe is grappling with a new wave of abnormal heat, which has already arrived in late spring and is bringing summer-like temperatures to large swathes of the continent. The phenomenon is particularly affecting Western Europe, with temperatures above seasonal averages in Spain, France, the United Kingdom, and Portugal, while Italy is also experiencing a significant rise in temperatures, especially in the North and in inland areas of Central and Southern Italy.

A May with a summery face

The current warm spell confirms an increasingly evident trend: heat waves in Europe are tending to arrive earlier than in the past. Events that until a few decades ago were primarily associated with the central summer months are now occurring as early as late May, making spring increasingly prone to intense and persistent temperature spikes.

The precedent of 2003

The most significant historical reference remains 2003, a landmark year for extreme summers in Europe. As early as mid-May, unusually high temperatures were recorded, with peaks exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), heralding a record-breaking summer with highs hovering around 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) for weeks in Italy. Since then, the continent has experienced several episodes of early heat, including those in 2007, 2022, and 2025.

The mechanism of high pressure

The heat wave is driven by a typical summer weather pattern: a stationary high pressure system blocks the arrival of weather fronts and favors the accumulation of hot air. The air mass responsible for the current scorching heat comes from North Africa, particularly Morocco, and has primarily affected Spain, Portugal, France, and the United Kingdom. Italy was reached less directly, but the heat has still been felt.

Temperatures above average by 12-14 degrees

In some parts of Europe, maximum temperatures are up to 12-14 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average. Several weather stations, especially in France, Cornwall, and southern England, have broken their monthly records. The anomaly also affects minimum temperatures, with tropical nights already in May and nighttime temperatures above 20 degrees Celsius, considered exceptional for the time of year.

France, Spain and the United Kingdom under pressure

France is experiencing temperatures between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius across much of the country, with peaks of up to 38 degrees Celsius in some areas. In Spain, temperatures are widely exceeding 34 degrees Celsius, with possible peaks around 37 degrees, while in Portugal, highs may reach 38 degrees Celsius, and the risk of wildfires is increasing. In the United Kingdom, after record temperatures, a temporary easing is expected, although temperatures could rise above 30 degrees again.

Italy, first red flags from the Ministry of Health

Italy is also experiencing an abnormally hot phase. On Thursday, May 28, the Ministry of Health has designated four cities as red-flagged: Bologna, Florence, Rome, and Turin. Level 3 indicates possible negative health effects even for healthy, active people, as well as the elderly, young children, and vulnerable individuals. Pescara is in orange, while numerous cities, including Milano, Naples, Palermo, Venice, Verona and Genoa, are in yellow.

The health risks

Heat waves become dangerous when high temperatures persist for several consecutive days, often combined with humidity, strong sunlight, and poor ventilation. These conditions increase the risk of dehydration, heat stroke, and the worsening of pre-existing conditions. Health alerts serve precisely to warn of potential effects on the population in advance and to strengthen prevention efforts.

Thunderstorms and gradual drop in temperatures

Over the next few days, the anticyclone is expected to gradually weaken. The arrival of cooler air from the northeast could favor localized thunderstorms, especially in areas where the new air mass will meet the existing warm air mass. Temperatures in Italy are expected to remain above average, but closer to normal than the peaks recorded during the most intense phase.

The weight of global warming

Experts emphasize that attributing a single event to climate change requires specific analysis, especially when the phenomenon is still ongoing. However, a warmer initial climate makes heat-related extreme events more likely and more intense. The increasing frequency of early waves in Europe fits into a global picture marked by record temperatures and increasingly pronounced anomalies.

The alarm for the next few years

According to experts from the UN agency for meteorological and climate change, global average temperatures will remain at or near record levels for the coming years. For the period 2026-2030, there is a high probability that the five-year average will exceed the threshold of 1,5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. It is also highly likely that at least one year of the five-year period will temporarily exceed this threshold, confirming an increasingly worrying climate trend.

El Niño and the risk of new records

Forecasts also indicate a possible evolution towards El Niño conditions between 2027 and 2028. This phenomenon, linked to the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific, can influence the global climate for several months. The latest episode, between 2023 and 2024, contributed to making those years among the warmest on record. A new episode could increase the likelihood of another record-breaking year before 2031.

A signal that is increasingly difficult to ignore

The anomalous heat of late May is not just an isolated meteorological event, but a sign of a broader transformation. Europe is facing early summers, above-average temperatures, early tropical nights, and growing risks to health, the environment, and the landscape. The boundary between spring and summer appears increasingly fragile, while heatwaves become one of the most visible manifestations of the climate crisis.