Iran-US agreement close: immediate ceasefire and Hormuz issue at the heart of the deal

The war between the United States and Iran could be facing a decisive diplomatic turning point. According to sources cited by Al Arabiya, the final draft of a potential agreement between Washington and Tehran, brokered by Pakistan, is ready and could be announced within hours. According to rumors circulating in Arab media, the agreement would come into effect immediately after the official announcement by the two sides and would have as its primary objective the cessation of hostilities and the stable reopening of shipping channels in the Persian Gulf.

The key points of the draft agreement

The text of the agreement would include a immediate, total and unconditional ceasefire on all fronts, along with a mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure. The points indicated also include the end of military operations, the cessation of media warfare, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the principle of non-interference in internal affairs. A central element also concerns the guarantee of freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of ​​Oman, a strategic passage for global energy trade.

Hormuz remains the most delicate issue

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the main point of friction. Blocking or limiting naval traffic in this area would have devastating consequences for international markets, particularly energy, transportation, and inflation. According to Bloomberg, if the Strait were to remain closed until August, the risk would be a crisis comparable to that of 2008. The White House, while acknowledging progress in the talks, urges caution: the issue of reopening and managing transit remains far from a definitive solution.

Rubio puts the brakes on the agreement: an alternative plan is needed.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that progress has been made, but warned that the United States must also prepare for an alternative scenario. Washington is seeking an agreement that guarantees the reopening of the Strait and the abandonment of Iran's nuclear ambitions, but Rubio emphasized the need for a "Plan B" in case Tehran decides to maintain the closure of the route or impose tolls on ships. For the United States, such a precedent would be unacceptable and would risk having knock-on effects in other strategic areas of the world.

The highly enriched uranium issue

Although the draft released by Arab media does not include direct references to nuclear power and missiles, the issue of highly enriched uranium remains the real sticking point of the negotiations. Donald Trump has reiterated that Tehran cannot retain control of it, arguing that the United States has no need for it and that the material would likely be destroyed. Iran, for its part, insists on the lifting of sanctions and the recognition of its rights, rejecting the idea that its demands should be considered concessions.

The gradual lifting of US sanctions

One of the most relevant passages of the agreement would concern the gradual lifting of US sanctions against Iran, subject to compliance with the conditions established in the agreement. For Tehran, the end of economic restrictions is a key demand, after years of measures described by the Iranian authorities as "crippling." The draft agreement would also provide for the initiation, within seven days of signing, of new negotiations on the remaining issues, with a joint monitoring and dispute resolution mechanism.

Pakistan and Qatar at the center of mediation

Pakistan remains the main mediator between Washington and Tehran. Sources in Islamabad express cautious optimism, while acknowledging that bridging the gap between the parties will not be easy. Qatar has also reportedly sent a negotiating team to Tehran, in coordination with the United States, to help finalize the agreement. Doha, already a key player in other regional crises, thus enters a very delicate phase of the negotiations, while China's possible role in convincing the parties to move forward with an agreement also remains open.

Trump: "The war will end soon"

During a White House ceremony, Donald Trump assured that "the war will end soon," asserting the effectiveness of the naval blockade and claiming it worked "one hundred percent." However, the very issue of ship transit and freedom of navigation remains among the most complex issues. The American president's statements come at a time when diplomacy is attempting to transform a potential truce into a structured agreement, but military, energy, and nuclear uncertainties continue to weigh on the negotiations.

A still fragile scenario

A potential agreement between Iran and the United States would represent a crucial step in preventing a further escalation of the Middle East crisis. However, the gap between the parties remains significant on at least two issues: the management of highly enriched uranium and control of the Strait of Hormuz. If the agreement is announced, its validity will depend on the ability to transform the ceasefire into a credible, verifiable, and sustainable negotiating process. Diplomacy is racing against time, while markets, governments, and international public opinion are looking to Hormuz as the point on which the economic and strategic balance of power in the coming months could depend.