Ebola outbreak alarms in Africa: over 200 deaths in Congo and ten countries at risk of contagion

Ebola alarm is growing in Africa, where the epidemic that originated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is taking on increasingly worrying proportions. According to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in addition to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, ten other African countries are considered at risk of infection. Director Jean Kaseya made this announcement during a briefing, citing Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia. The rapid evolution of the outbreak and the possibility of cross-border spread are prompting international health authorities to strengthen surveillance, tracing, and containment measures.

The outbreak that started in Congo and the diagnostic delay

Attention remains focused on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the so-called "index case" reportedly developed the first symptoms on April 24. However, according to Imperial College London models, the virus may have begun circulating as early as late March or early April, signaling a possible delay in identifying the epidemic. This concerns experts, as failure to detect it promptly could foster transmission chains that are difficult to reconstruct, especially in areas characterized by high mobility, fragile healthcare facilities, and unstable security conditions.

Rezza: "Possible role of hospitals and funeral ceremonies"

Epidemiologist Gianni Rezza emphasized that the delay in diagnosis may be linked to several factors, including the potential low sensitivity of the tests used or the inadequate quality of the samples analyzed. According to the expert, it's likely that a single interspecies jump was followed by subsequent chains of transmission, which were then amplified by hospitals and funerals. The virus responsible, Ebola Bundibugyo, has mutations compared to the strains that caused previous outbreaks, but Rezza believes it's unlikely that these have substantially altered the pathogen's main characteristics.

Bundibugyo strain without approved vaccine

One of the most critical aspects of the emergency concerns the Bundibugyo strain, for which there are no approved vaccines or specific therapies. The vaccines developed against Ebola Zaire may have limited cross-reactivity, complicating the healthcare response. In the absence of targeted pharmacological tools, the decisive measures remain case isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. Precisely for this reason, timely interventions are essential to prevent the outbreak from further spreading.

Ituri epicenter of the epidemic and fears at the border

Ituri Province, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, remains the epicenter of the epidemic. The area borders Uganda and South Sudan and has been plagued by years of violence, displacement, and fragile healthcare. Some cases have also been reported in the Goma area, bordering Rwanda, in a territory where government control is complicated by the presence of M23 rebels. The combination of insecurity, population mobility, and limited access to healthcare makes containing the virus particularly challenging.

Over 200 deaths and rapidly increasing cases

Reports released in the last few hours indicate a worsening situation. In Congo, there are reports of over 200 deaths out of hundreds of suspected cases, with figures varying between official and regional sources. Congolese authorities have reported 904 suspected cases in the eastern part of the country and 119 suspected deaths, while other regional counts put the death toll at up to 220. Between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, confirmed and suspected cases have surpassed 1,000, confirming a growth rate judged to be very rapid by health observers.

Volunteer deaths and risk in funeral rites

Three Red Cross volunteers have also reportedly died in the past few hours after displaying symptoms consistent with the Bundibugyo virus. According to local sources, the volunteers had cared for several bodies that were later found to be infected. The incident, which occurred in the Mongwalu area, confirms the elevated risk associated with handling bodies. The bodies of Ebola victims can be highly contagious and require rigorous safe burial protocols, which are often difficult to implement in communities where traditional funeral rites involve direct contact with the deceased.

Doctors Without Borders: "It's a race against time."

Numerous Doctors Without Borders teams are currently working on the ground, describing it as a veritable "race against time." The organization is working around the clock on a large-scale emergency response, in collaboration with the Congolese authorities and the World Health Organization. The priority is to treat Ebola patients, trace their contacts, and simultaneously ensure access to treatment for other diseases such as malaria, cholera, measles, and HIV. Approximately 50 international staff are expected in Ituri alone, working alongside approximately 480 local professionals.

Treatment centers under pressure and attacks on facilities

The health response is further complicated by attacks on treatment centers. In Mongbwalu, young people stormed a hospital demanding the return of the bodies of two relatives. According to the hospital director, staff were forced to evacuate Ebola patients due to gunfire. This incident followed the burning of two treatment centers in the eastern part of the country. In an already fragile context, these attacks risk compromising isolation, healthcare, and contact tracing.

Fragile health systems and mass displacement

Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo has been experiencing instability for years, with active armed groups and vast areas marked by violence against civilians. Even before the current outbreak, Doctors Without Borders (MSF) had reported worsening insecurity in Ituri, with doctors and nurses forced to flee and healthcare facilities in critical condition. Mass displacement increases the risk of spread in refugee camps, where sanitation is precarious and access to healthcare remains limited.

Contact tracing and material shortages

Containing the epidemic also depends on the ability to rapidly trace people who have come into contact with suspected or confirmed cases. Ugandan authorities have strengthened contact tracing, while in Congo, surveillance remains under severe pressure. Experts also warn of the impact of cuts in international aid, which have exacerbated shortages of face shields, protective suits, diagnostic kits, body bags, and essential materials for safe burials. Without adequate protection, risks for healthcare workers, volunteers, and family members of the sick increase.

The risk for Europe according to Rezza

Gianni Rezza clarified that the risk of the Ebola virus reaching the West cannot be ruled out, but it would be manageable. This possibility could materialize if the epidemic spread widely in Africa, affecting cities with intercontinental airports. Even if an infected but still asymptomatic person reached a European country and subsequently developed symptoms, the expert said the situation would be manageable with immediate isolation and appropriate health protocols. An epidemic spread to Europe remains unlikely, because the conditions that are fueling the contagion in Africa, such as risky funeral rites and overwhelmed hospitals, would not be the same in European countries.

WHO: Low global risk, but high alert in the region

The World Health Organization considers the risk for the Democratic Republic of the Congo to be very high, high for neighboring countries, and low globally. This does not mean, however, that the emergency should be underestimated. The rapid growth curve, the lack of specific vaccines against the Bundibugyo strain, the fragility of healthcare facilities, and the presence of areas outside the full control of the authorities make an immediate and coordinated response essential. The goal is to halt the spread of the virus before the epidemic reaches even more difficult-to-contain dimensions.

FIFA is monitoring the situation ahead of the World Cup

The health emergency is also intertwined with the international sports calendar. Ahead of the World Cup in North America, FIFA announced it is closely monitoring the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, maintaining contact with the Congolese football federation and the health authorities of the host countries. The organization explained that it is working with governments, health agencies, and the WHO to ensure a safe tournament. No final decisions have been made at this time, but the situation remains under review.

A new vaccine not before six to nine months

Scientists at the University of Oxford are working on a new vaccine against the Bundibugyo strain, but according to WHO guidelines, it won't be available for six to nine months. This makes it even more urgent to strengthen traditional public health measures. Isolation, contact tracing, protection of workers, safe burials, and support for local communities remain the most immediate tools to contain the emergency. In Central Africa, the battle against Ebola is now being played on time, the public's trust, and the international community's ability to sustain an already severely tested health response.